By Nelson Banya
HARARE (Reuters) - Former South African President Thabo Mbeki said on Monday he was confident an emergency regional summit would salvage a power-sharing agreement between Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe and the MDC opposition.
Mugabe and opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai declined to speak to reporters as they arrived for the talks, but Mbeki said he was "very optimistic" they would break a deadlock over control of key ministries in a unity government.
The Southern African Development Community (SADC) convened the meeting amid fears a September 15 power-sharing agreement was about to unravel after weeks of fruitless negotiations between ZANU-PF and two Movement for Democratic Change factions.
The accord is seen as key to any effort to pull Zimbabwe out of a deep economic crisis. Inflation is out of control and food and fuel shortages are widespread in the once prosperous nation.
Political analysts say the outcome hinges on how much pressure the 15-nation SADC can put on Mugabe and Tsvangirai to compromise.
Tsvangirai defeated Mugabe in a presidential election on March 29 but by too few votes to avoid a run-off in June. Mugabe won the second round after Tsvangirai pulled out, saying his supporters had been subjected to violence and intimidation.
The rivals and Arthur Mutambara, the leader of a small MDC faction, signed an agreement to form a unity government last month after mediation by Mbeki. The parties then locked horns over control of ministries.
"As we start discussions today, the options are very limited to the three leaders. The agreement we signed on September 15 must work," Mutambara said as he arrived at the talks.
"IT'S 50-50"
Tsvangirai, set to become prime minister, accuses ZANU-PF of trying to make the MDC a junior partner with responsibility for lesser ministries. He boycotted a summit in Swaziland last week, saying Mugabe's government refused to give him a passport.
In turn, ZANU-PF accuses Tsvangirai of wanting to seize power rather than share it and of stalling the talks to try to drag in the United Nations to mediate.
Mugabe, Tsvangirai and Mutambara are expected to join Mbeki and leaders from South Africa, Swaziland, Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo at the meeting on Monday.
"On the face of it, you get an impression there will be no deal, but it's a 50-50 affair," said Lovemore Madhuku, chairman of the National Constitutional Assembly, a pressure group.
"I think both parties realise that the region, and that many Zimbabweans want some kind of settlement," he said. "But the greater pressure will be on Tsvangirai because many SADC leaders believe that Mugabe has already climbed down low enough."
Mugabe, 84 and Zimbabwe's sole ruler since independence from Britain in 1980, has dismissed Tsvangirai as a "pathetic Western puppet" and vowed that he will never get near power.
The 56-year-old opposition chief calls Mugabe a "raving old man with nothing to offer".
John Makumbe, a veteran political commentator and Mugabe critic, said Monday's meeting would fail if SADC leaders resorted to their traditional support for Mugabe, who recently threatened to form a government on his own if Tsvangirai's MDC did not compromise on the cabinet.
